Prediction of response to treatment in a randomized clinical trial of couple therapy: a 2-year follow-up.

Many studies have examined pretreatment predictors of immediate posttreatment outcome, but few studies have examined prediction of long-term treatment response to couple therapies. Four groups of predictors (demographic, intrapersonal, communication, and other interpersonal) and 2 moderators (pretreatment severity and type of therapy) were explored as predictors of clinically significant change measured 2 years after treatment termination. Results demonstrated that power processes and expressed emotional arousal were the strongest predictors of 2-year response to treatment. Moderation analyses showed that these variables predicted differential treatment response to traditional versus integrative behavioral couple therapy and that more variables predicted 2-year response for couples who were less distressed when beginning treatment. Findings are discussed with regard to existing work on prediction of treatment response, and directions for further study are offered.